"Length of service" proportionate to "promotion prospects"

I've worked for 4 companies during my career, the longest time of service being 5 years. During that time I've make a few observations. One of them being, if you want to be promoted in a company, you have to have joined them 10 years ago or more.
The second observation I've noted is to get a decent pay rise you have to change jobs.

So, you either stay at the same job for 10 years before getting decent pay, or you change jobs a lot.

I'm wondering that if two people start at two companies at the same time and at the same salary. One stays there 10 years and the other changes jobs a lot, which one will have the highest pay after 10 years?

I wonder…

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